Rural Voters and Farmers Are Souring on Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For years, rural America has been one of the most reliable sources of political support for Donald Trump. But a new national poll suggests that loyalty is cracking — and the reasons are hitting close to home for millions of farmers and small-town families across the country.

A Fox News poll released this week found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has dropped 34 points since early 2025, falling from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the decline is nearly as sharp — a 33-point slide from +27 to -6. It marks the first time in this polling series that rural voters have given Trump a net negative approval rating.

What the Poll Actually Found

The survey was conducted May 15–18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. It was run jointly by Beacon Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning firm, using live phone calls and online responses. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Trump's overall approval rating sits at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest level recorded in this polling series. But the more telling story is what's happening within specific voter groups that have traditionally backed him most strongly.

On the economy, only 29 percent of all voters approved of how Trump is handling it, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters mirrored that finding almost exactly — 30 percent approved and 70 percent disapproved.

Inflation is where voters expressed the most frustration. Just 24 percent of all respondents approved of Trump's handling of rising prices, with 76 percent disapproving. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved — numbers that reflect how deeply the cost of living is weighing on communities outside major cities.

Even border security, long one of Trump's strongest issues with his base, has slipped into negative territory overall for the first time this term, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Rural voters remain slightly more supportive on that issue, at 54 percent approval to 45 percent disapproval.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, described what he is seeing in the data this way:

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit. Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Why Farmers Are Feeling the Pressure

The economic stress hitting rural communities isn't abstract. Farm bankruptcies jumped 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That figure reflects a farm economy under serious strain — squeezed by rising production costs, weaker markets, and growing debt.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has pushed up fuel and fertilizer prices, two expenses that directly affect how much it costs to run a farm. For many agricultural operations already working on thin margins, those increases have become unmanageable.

Willis Nelson, a farmer in Louisiana, described the situation plainly in comments to MS Now. His family has been forced to cut back on fertilizer because, as he put it, "we just don't have the margin." He added: "We're not financially able" to operate the way they normally would, and his multigenerational farm is now facing the possibility of bankruptcy. "It's tough, you know, very tough on us," he said.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder shared similar concerns in an interview with US Farm Report, with his comments distributed by Farm Action. He broke down what it actually costs to keep his operation running:

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors. I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

On top of rising costs, trade tensions have reduced demand from China for American agricultural exports like soybeans, leaving many farmers with weaker prices and fewer buyers.

Adding to the unease, Trump drew attention during a recent trip to Beijing for defending Chinese purchases of American farmland. He argued that restricting foreign ownership would hurt land values — a position that clashed with concerns many farmers already have about foreign control of agricultural property.

Why This Matters for Elections

Rural voters don't just make up a large share of the Republican base — they often provide the margins that decide close Senate and House races in battleground states. Even a modest shift in rural turnout or enthusiasm heading into this year's midterm elections could have real consequences for which party controls Congress.

The sharpest drop in Trump's rural approval came between April and May of this year — a 16-point swing in just one month. That kind of movement in a short period suggests the economic pressures farmers are describing are translating quickly into political sentiment.

What the White House Is Saying

Administration officials pushed back on the poll's findings, characterizing them as a temporary snapshot that doesn't capture the full picture.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" under Trump, and argued that "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as a more meaningful measure of public support, saying "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda." Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and described current results as "just the beginning."